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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-06 10:59:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:59:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:59:45 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-06 10:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060854 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Irma continues as a Category 5 hurricane this morning, having passed over Barbuda a few hours ago. Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds near 155 kt and that the central pressure had fallen to 914 mb inside the 25 n mi wide eye. There has been little change in the satellite appearance of the hurricane since that time, so the initial intensity remains 160 kt. The initial motion is 285/14. Irma is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west- northwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected during the next 48-72 h. This portion of the forecast track is little changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF model. The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Irma is likely to remain in a light shear, warm water, environment for the next 3 to 4 days. The intensity guidance continues to show slow weakening during this time, and this part of the intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, with Irma remaining a strong hurricane during this time. The intensity forecast is lowered at 120 h due to the forecast landfall, and even if Irma stays over water it is likely to encounter some vertical shear at that time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, today. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, with hurricane watches for portions of Haiti and the central Bahamas. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.9N 62.6W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.6W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.3W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.6N 70.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2017-09-06 10:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 060853 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 KTS...185 MPH...295 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 36(50) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 37(54) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 38(54) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 35(62) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 29(69) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 22(73) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 23(45) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 48(56) 21(77) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 23(49) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 51(59) 19(78) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 25(54) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 18(34) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 51(57) 19(76) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 18(51) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 21(68) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 16(42) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 31(68) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 32(64) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 33(54) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 21(62) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 26(66) 6(72) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 5(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 24(82) 2(84) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 25(52) 4(56) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) 3(35) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 72(81) 5(86) 1(87) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 4(54) 1(55) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 5(34) 1(35) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 52(66) 3(69) 1(70) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 73(83) 12(95) X(95) X(95) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 27(72) X(72) X(72) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 26(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 74(77) 22(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 29(29) 56(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 52(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 14(44) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 33(47) 8(55) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 14(67) 1(68) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 1(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 33(47) 2(49) 1(50) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 5( 5) 73(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 37(37) 17(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 6( 7) 30(37) 2(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 13 63(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PONCE PR 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PONCE PR 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 83(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) AGUADILLA PR 50 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 74 25(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 4 68(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN JUAN PR 64 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) VIEQUES PR 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 34 34(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) VIEQUES PR 64 5 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 92 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAINT THOMAS 64 60 18(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT CROIX 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT CROIX 50 35 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 64 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-06 10:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM BARBUDA AND TOWARD ST. MARTIN... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Irma was located near 17.9, -62.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 914 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 29
2017-09-06 10:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060853 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM BARBUDA AND TOWARD ST. MARTIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 62.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a Hurricane Watch for the Central Bahamas. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 62.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands later today, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). St. Martin recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands and should continue through today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti by early Thursday and in the central Bahamas by Friday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos and eastern to central Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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