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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2017-09-05 16:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 051445 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KTS...180 MPH...285 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 28(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 32(54) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 32(57) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 34(61) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 36(63) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 36(57) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 20(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 13(60) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 57(64) 11(75) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 11(47) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 43(75) 3(78) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 3(46) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 21(57) 3(60) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 1(25) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 75(78) 5(83) X(83) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 5(53) 1(54) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 6(35) X(35) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 68(91) X(91) X(91) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) X(71) X(71) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 21(54) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 50(58) 7(65) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 6(36) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 14(55) 1(56) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) 1(29) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) 1(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 43(81) X(81) X(81) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) X(54) X(54) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 12(45) X(45) X(45) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X 3( 3) 55(58) 11(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 53(55) 23(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 21(21) 25(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 5( 5) 81(86) 5(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 8(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 33(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) VIEQUES PR 34 X 14(14) 76(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 36(38) 60(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) 80(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 65(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT CROIX 34 2 32(34) 50(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAINT CROIX 50 X 5( 5) 42(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 95(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 93(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 75(75) 12(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 6 90(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 74(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 40(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BARBUDA 34 68 32(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 6 93(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 64 1 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ANTIGUA 34 58 41(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 5 80(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ANTIGUA 64 1 48(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GUADELOUPE 34 29 41(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GUADELOUPE 50 3 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 26

2017-09-05 16:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051445 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 26

2017-09-05 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051444 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGAO TO ISLA SAONA * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. IN THIS CASE...FOR SOME OF EASTERNMOST ISLANDS...THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL AS CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 135SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Irma Graphics

2017-09-05 14:06:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 12:06:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 12:06:44 GMT

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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 25

2017-09-05 14:00:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051200 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity of Irma. NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles. No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today. 2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical- storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early tomorrow. 3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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