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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-10-06 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060241 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 Nicole has continued to become better organized during the past several hours with a warm spot appearing on the night visible images. The latest microwave data also show that the storm has maintained a mid-level eye, although the eye still isn't very well- defined in the low-level channels. Subjective Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. The storm is starting to take on a more asymetric appearance, a sign that the long-awaited shear might finally be starting to impact the cyclone. Still, the shear is not forecast to increase much over the next day or so, and Nicole has the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane during that time, although not explicitly forecast below. Vertical wind shear should become rather strong by the end of the forecast period, and Nicole's winds should gradually decrease by early next week. It is a little puzzling that, with such strong shear in all of the global models, a lot of guidance don't show much weakening. Given the likelihood of such an unfavorable environment, the latest official forecast is very similar to the previous one, on the low side of the guidance closest to the LGEM model. The initial motion has turned to the right, now 320/8. Most of the guidance move the system to the north-northwest or north at a decreasing forward speed over the next 36 hours as a ridge collapses to the north of Nicole. After that time, northerly flow related to a trough over the central Atlantic is forecast to steer Nicole slowly southward for a couple of days. Up to about 72 hours, the model guidance is in reasonable agreement on this solution. Thereafter, the model spread becomes increasingly large very quickly, with a massive 1000 mile spread between the HWRF and the ECMWF models by day 5. This appears to be related to Nicole's possible interaction with Matthew and/or the southern portion of the trough, resulting in tracks primarily toward the southwest, west, or northeast. The latest long-range NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF ensemble means, with more weight on the ECMWF solution. This forecast shows a slow northward motion by the end of the period, ending up pretty close to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 26.0N 64.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 27.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 27.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-10-06 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 060241 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-06 04:41:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 5 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.0, -64.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 7
2016-10-06 04:41:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 ...NICOLE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 64.1W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 64.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. A slow, meandering motion is forecast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast on Thursday, with some weakening anticipated by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-10-06 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 64.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 64.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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