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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-05 10:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 08:30:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 08:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-10-05 10:29:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050829 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 Nicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear. Satellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area of deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nicole is expected to remain in strong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane Matthew during the next few days, which should prevent the storm from strengthening. Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come into better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally shows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the northwest is likely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that time, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with the cut off upper-level low. The NHC track forecast closely follows a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.3N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 26.8N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 27.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-10-05 10:28:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 050828 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-05 10:28:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 5 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.3, -61.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 4
2016-10-05 10:28:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050828 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 ...NICOLE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 61.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 61.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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