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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 2
2016-10-04 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 ...NICOLE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 61.1W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-10-04 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.1W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-10-04 17:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041500 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance. The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days, the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-04 16:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 14:52:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated 0
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-10-04 16:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 041452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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