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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-01 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-01 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 2 8(10) 14(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 17(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-01 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011450 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda is a bit of a mess this morning with an elongated cloud pattern from southeast to northwest and no signs of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. However, microwave data near 1155 UTC from GPM still shows a well-defined low-level eye, although the mid-level structure remains degraded from easterly shear. The current wind speed is held at 75 kt, with this being an uncertain estimate due to a large spread in the various intensity techniques. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt, with microwave data helping to pinpoint the slower movement. The track forecast is no piece of cake this morning with some interaction anticipated with Invest 91E to the east in a day or two. While a mid-level ridge persists to the northwest of Hilda, the southern periphery of the ridge weakens due to 91E, causing Hilda to take a northwestward turn in a couple of days. Hilda then should turn back toward the west-northwest and west by midweek due to the ridge remaining in place and 91E weakening. This is a tricky forecast because the guidance is shifting to the right, which at some point will bring Hilda over cold waters and closer to 91E, changing which atmospheric layers will dominate steering the tropical cyclone. In addition, interactions between two systems this close together aren't easy to forecast in the best of circumstances, and the latest guidance isn't in great agreement on the future strength of 91E either. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast is more conservative in shifting the track to the northeast than the guidance (remaining on the westerly side of the track envelope), then gradually comes close to the previous NHC forecast by the end of the 5-day period. This forecast is obviously rather uncertain, and a lot of generally better performing aids are to the northeast of the latest NHC track. The hurricane still has some chance to intensify during the next day or so with moderate easterly shear and good inner-core structure. Still, it is becoming more likely that Hilda is close to its peak intensity with no signs of the easterly shear abating until the hurricane moves over cool waters in a few days. Model guidance generally is lower than the last cycle, and only a few show strengthening. I'm going to keep the chance for slight strengthening in the near term, then show a steady drop in intensity due to persistent (or stronger) easterly shear and marginal water temperatures. The new intensity forecast is 5 kt lower than the last one at 36 hours and beyond and that could still be too high, especially if the track shifts any farther to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.6N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Graphics
2021-08-01 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 14:44:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 14:44:57 GMT
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-01 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011443 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 1 6( 7) 21(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20(30) 1(31) X(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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