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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 6 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 22(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 16(70) 2(72) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 12(33) 1(34) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago indicated that the area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has strengthened, and is producing 35-40 kt winds on its east side. In addition, satellite images show a fairly persistent area of showers and thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation and the center appears to be fairly well defined in recent visible images. Based on these data, advisories are now being initiated on Tropical Storm Hilda and the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. Hilda is moving westward at about 14 kt and is embedded in the flow on the south side of a sprawling subtropical ridge that extends from the south-central U.S. westward across the subtropical eastern Pacific. A general west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the synoptic pattern holds. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is predicted due to a combination of the subtropical ridge weakening and the interactions with the areas of low pressure to the east and west of Hilda. The ECMWF is the slowest model at long range due to it showing the most interaction with the low to Hildas east. The NHC track forecast lies generally near the model consensus and roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Hilda appears to be in generally conducive conditions for strengthening with SSTs currently around 28 C, abundant mid-level moisture, and fairly low wind shear. Given that these conditions are expected to persist for another couple of days, steady strengthening is forecast during that time period and Hilda is predicted to become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Beyond a couple of days, however, moderate easterly shear, progressively drier air, and decreasing SSTs should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the intensity model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 the center of Hilda was located near 12.1, -113.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 113.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 113.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a general decrease in forward speed is predicted over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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