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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda has resumed strengthening during the past several hours, including the short-lived appearance of an eye in the central dense overcast. Recent 37-GHz microwave imagery confirms an eye is developing, but indicates that the eyewall is not yet closed on the northeastern side of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt, while the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 75 kt. Although Hilda is experiencing some easterly vertical shear, conditions are generally conducive for strengthening during the next 24 h, and the early part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based mainly on current trends. After that time, decreasing moisture and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady weakening. The latter part of the intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is now a little slower at 285/9. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Hilda generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with a more northwestward motion around 96 h as the cyclone passes south of a weakness in the ridge. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also adjusted northward. It should be noted, though, that the global models continue to show the possibility of erratic motion due to Hilda interacting with TD-9E to the west and the weaker, but larger, low pressure area to the east. The most drastic example of this is in the Canadian model, which shows Hilda taking a significant turn to the south before resuming a northward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010236 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 64 43 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 24(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 4(42) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-01 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 the center of Hilda was located near 14.3, -118.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 118.7W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 118.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday. By Monday, Hilda is expected to slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010235 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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