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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-02 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020234 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Hurricane Hilda Graphics
2021-08-01 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 20:34:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 21:22:35 GMT
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-01 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern side of the central dense overcast. The current intensity estimates have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt until clearer data emerges. Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right. With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler waters sooner. In addition, easterly shear should increase tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening. Guidance has trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this still might be too high. In about 4 days, most of the models show little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-01 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA HANGING ONTO 85-MPH WINDS... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 1 the center of Hilda was located near 14.8, -120.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-01 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 012031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 ...HILDA HANGING ONTO 85-MPH WINDS... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 120.8W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.8 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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