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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Sunday. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 310835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 17 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 10N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 4 46(50) 35(85) 2(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X 6( 6) 38(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 37(52) 5(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-07-31 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-07-31 04:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 02:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-31 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better organized during the past several hours, with the low-level center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with the bulk of the outflow to the south. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear. Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h. After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water. However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than currently forecast. The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to erratic motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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