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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-08-05 04:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050232 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-08-05 04:30:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050230 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 127.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 127.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 127.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Tropical Depression Gil Graphics
2019-08-04 22:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 20:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 20:48:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-04 22:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has been devoid of deep convection for about 9 hours now, and if convection does return soon, then the system will be declared a post-tropical remnant low on the next advisory. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and a 25-kt surface wind vector in a recent 1835Z ASCAT-B scatterometer edge pass that caught the northwestern portion of the circulation. Continued weakening is expected after Gil's post-tropical transistion, and the system will likely dissipate by late Monday. The initial motion estimate remains 270/09 kt. Gil is embedded within the easterly trade wind flow, and the cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36 hours or so. The official track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gil (EP3/EP082019)
2019-08-04 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GIL EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Gil was located near 15.0, -126.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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