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Summary for Tropical Depression Gil (EP3/EP082019)
2019-08-04 10:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Gil was located near 14.9, -124.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gil Public Advisory Number 4
2019-08-04 10:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gil Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 ...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 124.4W ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gil was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 124.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast for the next day or so. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Gil is expected to dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-08-04 10:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-04 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040842 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Gil overnight with the low-level center of the cyclone becoming even more exposed. The main convective mass has also decreased in size with a new smaller burst of convection recently developing to the northeast of the center, however satellite imagery shows that the new burst is already beginning to shear away. A recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of around 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered somewhat conservatively to 30 kt. The strong shear over the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 to 36 hours, and this, along with dry mid-level air, should continue to cause Gil to weaken over the next day or so. The global model unanimously show the cyclone degenerating into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours, and so does the updated NHC forecast. Gil is moving westward or 275/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving generally westward during the next day or so while a low- to mid-level ridge remains to its north. The official track forecast is again close to the previous advisory and the latest HFIP corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-08-04 10:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 989 WTPZ23 KNHC 040841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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