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Tropical Storm Gil Graphics
2019-08-04 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 02:33:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 02:33:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-04 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 Gil remains a strongly sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated low-level center located near the western edge of a ragged-looking convective mass. Based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. The shear is being produced by large upper-level trough that lies near and to the north of the storm, and the dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will persist for the next couple of days. This, along with relatively dry mid-tropospheric air of relative humidities near 50 to 60 percent, should cause Gil to weaken and then dissipate within 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. The motion is estimated to be westward or 280/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of the cyclone over the next few days. This flow pattern should cause a continued westward or slightly south of westward track until dissipation. The official track prediction is very close to the previous NHC forecast and also close to the corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gil (EP3/EP082019)
2019-08-04 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GIL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Gil was located near 14.9, -123.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gil Public Advisory Number 3
2019-08-04 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 ...GIL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 123.6W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 123.6 West. Gil is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin by late Sunday, and Gil is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-08-04 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 125W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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