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Tropical Depression Gil Public Advisory Number 6
2019-08-04 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gil Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 ...GIL EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 126.3W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gil was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 126.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gil is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-08-04 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042038 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-08-04 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042038 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 126.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Gil Graphics
2019-08-04 16:39:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 14:39:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 14:39:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-04 16:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Shortly after 1200 UTC, Gil lost all of its central deep convection due to strong southwesterly to westerly shear and entrainment of dry air as per GOES-17 mid-level water vapor imagery. The cyclone now consists of a tight swirl of mainly low clouds, with the nearest convection located more than 150 nmi to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt. Gil is expected to continue to weaken due to the aforementioned adverse conditions, degenerating into a remnant low later today and dissipating by late Monday. Gil has continued to move westward or 270/09 kt. The shallow cyclone is now embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and Gil is expected to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36-48 hours. The official track forecast is nearly on top of of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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