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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2014-08-25 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 250832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 50
2014-08-25 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 128.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 128.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.1N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-25 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:34:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:33:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 49
2014-08-25 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the remaining deep convection located about 90 miles west-northwest of the exposed center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A intensity estimation. Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a result of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in continued weakening to a depression in 12 hours. The cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and ultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in 3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the diminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical cyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the east-southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered around the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie. The official NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour period, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2014-08-25 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 250232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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