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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 42
2014-08-23 10:46:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230846 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Karina continues to show signs of an intermittent eye in shortwave and longwave IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are unchanged since the last advisory, and several recent AMSU passes have indicated an intensity of 70 to 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. No significant change to the intensity forecast was made. Karina continues to march steadily toward cooler SSTs and a subsequently more stable thermodynamic environment. After 36 hours, the cyclone should encounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment and higher shear, resulting in an increased rate of weakening. Most of the dynamical models forecast that the low- and mid-level centers will become decoupled within 96 hours, but that the low-level center will persist for a day or two after that. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt. There remains a high degree of confidence for the first 48 hours of the track forecast. A general east-northeastward track is still expected while Karina interacts with the circulation of Lowell. After Lowell passes to the north, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the track of Karina and its remnants. Not only is the model spread very large, but the run-to-run consistency has been remarkably poor. For instance, the 00Z and 18Z GFS 120-h forecast positions differ by over 700 nm. The members of TVCE currently support three very distinct scenarios. The GFS shows Karina wrapping around to the north side of Lowell and moving rapidly westward. The HWRF and GFDL models show a slower westward motion, caused by a mid-level ridge that is forecast to build to the east of Lowell. Finally, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Karina will be advected southward by the circulation of Marie. The official forecast has been shifted slightly northward, in part due to the extreme shift of the GFS, but remains closest to the middle ground solution of the HWRF and GFDL. If the models begin to converge on a single solution, it may necessitate a larger change to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 16.7N 134.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-23 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA MAINTAINS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 the center of KARINA was located near 16.7, -134.4 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane KARINA Public Advisory Number 42
2014-08-23 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 230845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 ...KARINA MAINTAINS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 134.4W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2014-08-23 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 230845 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 42
2014-08-23 10:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 230845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 134.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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