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Tropical Depression KARINA Graphics
2014-08-25 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:37:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:35:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 51
2014-08-25 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT, SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about two days. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery. Karina is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of Karina occurs. The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south of the previous official prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2014-08-25 16:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 251435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-25 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of KARINA was located near 17.1, -128.0 with movement ESE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KARINA Public Advisory Number 51
2014-08-25 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 251434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...KARINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 128.0W ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARINA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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