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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 63
2019-09-08 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082040 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. An ASCAT-B overpass several hours ago showed winds of 55-60 kt to the southeast of the center, and much of this area of wind has moved onshore in western Newfoundland. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt. The global models continue to forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone continues moving northeastward or 050/20 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force should continue over portions of Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 51.0N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-08 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN WEAKENS BELOW HURRICANE FORCE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Dorian was located near 51.0, -57.5 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 63
2019-09-08 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN WEAKENS BELOW HURRICANE FORCE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...51.0N 57.5W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF ST. ANTHONY NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Newfoundland, and has discontinued all warnings for Newfoundland south of Cape Anguille. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Anguille to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A motion toward the east-northeast is expected Monday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone should move near or over northern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador during the next few hours, then move away from Atlantic Canada later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure system on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km) from the center. Daniel's Harbor, Newfoundland, recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the West Coast of Newfoundland. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 63
2019-09-08 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 445 WTNT25 KNHC 082037 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTH OF CAPE ANGUILLE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE ANGUILLE TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT.......300NE 310SE 210SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 900SE 780SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.6N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...390NE 390SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 57.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Graphics
2019-09-08 19:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 17:37:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 15:24:37 GMT
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