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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-22 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-22 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the disturbance farther inland until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or early Monday. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 21
2019-09-22 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Graphics
2019-09-20 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:51:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:51:37 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-09-20 04:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200249 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images show what little deep convection remains has been displaced well to the north of the center of the cyclone, and it can no longer be classified via the Dvorak technique. Moreover, cold air stratocumulus clouds over the western and southern portions of the circulation are indicative of cold air advection that is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone. Therefore, Humberto is now post-tropical and this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. It is estimated that the cyclone still has hurricane-force winds and based on continuity from previous estimates with a gradual weakening rate, the current intensity is set at 85 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely, and after 48 hours the system is expected to merge with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The cyclone has turned north-northeastward along the eastern side of a deep layer cyclonic circulation, with a current motion estimate of 030/17 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected in a day or so as the system moves within the mid-latitude westerlies until dissipation. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 40.0N 58.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/1200Z 41.8N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 21/0000Z 44.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/1200Z 45.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/0000Z 46.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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