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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 33
2019-09-25 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251458 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 13:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 11:49:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 10:13:42 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 13:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.0, -67.4 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 32A
2019-09-25 13:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 67.4W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 67.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 12:13:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 10:13:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 10:13:42 GMT
Tags: graphics
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