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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Graphics
2019-08-29 10:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 08:41:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 08:41:18 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-08-29 10:40:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290840 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Erin is merging with a frontal system and is now an extratropical low. The low is expected to accelerate northeastward toward Nova Scotia over the next 24 h, and some slight intensification is expected during that time. After 24 h, the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada. This is the last advisory on Erin from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 36.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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erin
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-29 10:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 the center of Erin was located near 36.1, -71.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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at1al062019
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Public Advisory Number 11
2019-08-29 10:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290839 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 ...ERIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 71.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward motion are expected later today, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen a little on Friday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-08-29 10:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290839 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN