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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-08-29 10:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290834 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC prediction. Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering currents. The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Marie. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Graphics
2014-08-29 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:33:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:33:45 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-29 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 the center of MARIE was located near 27.6, -132.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Public Advisory Number 30
2014-08-29 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014 ...MARIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 132.5W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2014-08-29 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290833 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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