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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-08-29 16:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291450 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and northwest of the exposed center. A frontal boundary has also wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours. The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the past 6 to 12 hours. However, the low is expected to slow down some while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer southwesterly flow during the next day or so. The official track forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 45.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-08-29 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 291450 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-29 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 29 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 45.5, -47.1 with movement NE at 44 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 24
2014-08-29 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-08-29 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291449 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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