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Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-06-21 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210236 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF BARRY IS LOSING DEFINITION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...BARRY IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DEGENERATED TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.6N 98.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 21/1200Z 19.6N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-06-21 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 210235 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 10 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-21 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -98.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY Public Advisory Number 15
2013-06-21 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 ...BARRY DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 98.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-06-21 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210235 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 98.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 98.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 97.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 99.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 98.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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