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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-08-18 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182032 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT REGENERATION. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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erin
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-18 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of ERIN was located near 20.4, -39.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN Public Advisory Number 16
2013-08-18 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ...ERIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 39.8W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H....AND A WEST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ERIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-08-18 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182031 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 39.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 39.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 39.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ERIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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erin
Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-08-18 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 182031 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 12 15 16 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 56 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 31 34 37 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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