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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Public Advisory Number 21
2013-07-09 16:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 ...ERICK DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 113.2W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 21
2013-07-09 16:30:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091430 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 113.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 113.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 113.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DALILA Graphics
2013-07-07 11:07:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 08:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 09:03:49 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 31
2013-07-07 10:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070836 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 DALILA LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEET THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...DALILA HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...DALILA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0430 UTC. THE REMNANT LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD LATER TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2013-07-07 10:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070834 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 13 23 28 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 81 58 48 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 7 19 24 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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