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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 18
2013-08-03 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 032031 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 75.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 77.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2013-07-09 17:12:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 091512 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 13 31 35 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 81 54 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 6 15 18 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Graphics
2013-07-09 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 14:32:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 14:31:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-07-09 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091431 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 ERICK HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS NOW...WHICH MEANS THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7-8 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER 20-21C SST WATER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE REMNANT LOW OF ERICK DISSIPATING WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.4N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-09 16:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 the center of ERICK was located near 24.4, -113.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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