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Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 4

2013-09-07 10:30:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070830 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 99.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 99.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 99.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Post-Tropical Cyclone KIKO Graphics

2013-09-02 23:08:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 20:37:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 21:04:43 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-09-02 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022037 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO INGEST DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER COOL WATERS THE PAST 6 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE ROBUST...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT KIKO HAS BECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN OVER 24C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 03/0600Z 22.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1800Z 22.8N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 22.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Post-Tropical Cyclone KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2013-09-02 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022036 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 26 29 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 57 48 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 15 18 22 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KIKO (EP1/EP112013)

2013-09-02 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 the center of KIKO was located near 22.9, -116.6 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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