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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 30.4, -84.1 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States. WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 192041 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 44(44) 15(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 56(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 66(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SURF CITY NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 68(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 64(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 23 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) COLUMBIA SC 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 59(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 32 41(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 66 11(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAVANNAH GA 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAVANNAH GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-19 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192039 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12 hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon. Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40 percent. The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-19 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192039 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) 2(18) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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