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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-10-14 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141438 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a frontal zone. The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate before it reaches the Azores. Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within mid-latitude westerlies. This general motion is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates. This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 41.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-10-14 16:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 141437 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-14 16:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Melissa was located near 41.0, -51.4 with movement E at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Public Advisory Number 13
2019-10-14 16:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141437 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 51.4W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 51.4 West. Melissa is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone should gradually weaken before it dissipates on Tuesday. Gale-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the southeast through southwest of the from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-10-14 16:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 141437 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 51.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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