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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 41
2019-10-02 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021435 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW. 50 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 22:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 20:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 21:24:51 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 34
2019-09-25 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 716 WTNT45 KNHC 252038 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. However, wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites. Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely. The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip, or 070/10 kt. A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before dissipating. This is the last advisory on Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 32.2N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2019-09-25 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 697 FONT15 KNHC 252038 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.2, -65.6 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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