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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-06-30 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-06-30 22:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 302032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 120.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 120.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Emilia Graphics
2018-06-30 16:33:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Jun 2018 14:33:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Jun 2018 15:25:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-06-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301431 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia's cloud pattern has degenerated significantly this morning and it now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a small patch of convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 30 kt, and given that the circulation is already moving over cool waters, additional weakening is forecast. Emilia is expected to become a remnant low later today, although the system could still generate intermittent patches of convection. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The depression or its remnants should continue on the same general track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-30 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 the center of Emilia was located near 17.7, -119.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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