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Tropical Depression Emilia Graphics
2018-07-01 04:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 02:32:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 03:25:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-07-01 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia has been producing an area of deep convection southwest of the low-level center, with cloud top temperatures of -60C to -70C for the past few hours. As a result, Emilia is maintaining its tropical cyclone status for now. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone should gradually weaken in an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment with the shear increasing. Emilia should become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/10. Emilia and its remnants should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0000Z 19.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 20.9N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z 21.2N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-07-01 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-07-01 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 the center of Emilia was located near 18.4, -121.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emilia Public Advisory Number 14
2018-07-01 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emilia Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 121.1W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 121.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. Emilia's remnant low is forecast to turn toward the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Emilia is forecast to weaken to a remnant low on Sunday and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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