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Tropical Depression Emilia Public Advisory Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emilia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 ...EMILIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 119.2W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 119.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Emilia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 301431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301430 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.2W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.2W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-30 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Jun 2018 08:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Jun 2018 09:26:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-30 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the low-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Emilia should continue to weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure ares between 36-48 h. The initial motion is now 285/8. The low- to mid-level flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia or its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so, followed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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