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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-06-30 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)

2018-06-30 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...EMILIA WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 the center of Emilia was located near 17.0, -118.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 11

2018-06-30 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 ...EMILIA WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 118.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 118.6 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening over cooler waters is forecast during the next few days, and Emilia is expected to weaken to a depression by Sunday and decay to a remnant low pressure area on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-06-30 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 15SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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