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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-11 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 592 WTNT43 KNHC 110833 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 An Advanced Microwave Technology Sounder (ATMS) 165GHZ overpass on Helene indicated a well-developed closed eyewall and a deep convective outer band with associated cold cloud tops of -76C wrapping around the south through east quadrants of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective T-numbers. There still appears to be a small window of opportunity for Helene to strengthen, during the next 12 hours or so, before the ocean and the upper wind environment become less conducive. Afterward, the SSTs decrease significantly and the vertical shear increases, which should induce gradual weakening. By day 3, the sea surface temperatures increase, however, the southwesterly shear persists and the mid-level atmospheric moisture decreases. Interestingly enough, the global models show Helene either maintaining tropical storm strength or even intensifying by the end of the period, possibly due to some mid-latitude dynamic forcing influences. It's also worth noting that the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution analysis and forecast product shows the system retaining a relatively symmetric warm core through the entire forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/12 kt. A turn more toward the northwest is forecast early on Wednesday. Beyond mid-period, the large-scale models agree that a mid- to upper tropospheric trough over the northeast Atlantic will dig southward inducing a weakness in the eastern portion of the subtropical ridge. In response to this change in the synoptic steering pattern, Helene should slowly turn northward and then north-northeastward during the next 72 to 96 hours, followed by a turn toward the northeast on day 5. The official forecast is close to the previous one, and lies near the TVCN consensus model and the GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 33.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.8N 35.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 18.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 19.5N 37.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.4N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 25.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 31.4N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 37.3N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-11 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Helene was located near 16.0, -33.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-11 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 494 WTNT33 KNHC 110833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...HELENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 33.6W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 33.6 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected after that time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-11 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 499 FONT13 KNHC 110833 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-11 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 052 WTNT23 KNHC 110832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 35.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 37.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.4N 38.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.7N 38.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.4N 36.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 37.3N 31.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 33.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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