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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-13 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Helene was located near 22.4, -36.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 23
2018-09-13 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 300 WTNT33 KNHC 130237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...HELENE WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 36.9W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM SSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected Thursday night followed by a turn toward the northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 23
2018-09-13 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 299 WTNT23 KNHC 130237 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 36.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 36.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.4N 37.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 37.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 36.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 35.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 30.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 43.4N 22.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 48.7N 12.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-12 22:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:44:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:44:25 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-12 22:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 994 WTNT43 KNHC 122041 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 The eye has continued to become less distinct in conventional imagery, but the overall convective pattern remains well organized and symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. Most of the guidance show a significant increase in the shear in 24 hours, but the SSTs are not changing much for the next 2 days or so, thus gradual weakening is forecast. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become highly unfavorable, resulting in additional weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Helene should have acquired extratropical characteristics. The hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 12 kt, embedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging trough over the central Atlantic. Since the trough is forecast to amplify, Helene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the current forecast track of Helene, and they all bring the cyclone near the Azores in about 3 days. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 21.4N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 23.1N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.0N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 29.0N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 43.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 47.5N 14.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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