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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-09-12 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 273 WTNT23 KNHC 120834 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 35.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 35.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 35.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.7N 36.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 37.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.9N 36.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.0N 34.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 28.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 19.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-12 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 02:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:28:29 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-12 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 516 WTNT43 KNHC 120233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that Helene is gradually weakening, likely due to cool SSTs of around 25.5 deg C beneath the cyclone. The eye has become a little less distinct and cloud tops associated with the inner-core convection have warmed. The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. Continued weakening is likely for the next 36 to 48 h since Helene will remain over marginal SSTs, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement. After that time, the cyclone will reach somewhat warmer waters and will begin to interact with an upper-level trough to the northwest. While this interaction will cause an increase of shear over Helene, it could also provide some baroclinic support to help maintain Helene's intensity before it undergoes extratropical transition. Some of the dynamical models suggest that reintensification is possible through this period, while the statistical models quickly weaken the cyclone. For now the official intensity forecast continues to show little change in intensity from 72-120 h and remains close to the various intensity consensus aids, but confidence in this portion of the forecast is lower. Virtually no change has been made to the official track forecast. Helene is currently moving northwestward, and a steady turn northward, and eventually northeastward is expected as the cyclone is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and a trough to west. All of the global models are in good agreement, with the forward speed of the cyclone being the only notable difference from model to model. Since I have no reason to depart from the consensus at this point, the NHC forecast remains very close to HCCA through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.0N 35.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.3N 36.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.2N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 23.6N 37.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 33.7N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 40.5N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 45.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-12 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 294 FONT13 KNHC 120233 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 4(48) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-12 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Helene was located near 18.0, -35.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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