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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)

2017-09-09 01:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO KATIA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Katia was located near 20.9, -96.8 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 13A

2017-09-09 01:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 700 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 ...AIR FORCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO KATIA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 96.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 96.8 West. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall, followed by rapid weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected to continue within the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roth/Lamers/Blake

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Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-09-08 22:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082051 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Satellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized with the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon. The initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Another reconnaissance plane is expected to arrive in a few hours to check on the winds of Katia. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia could still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6 hours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours. Katia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is still west-southwestward at 6 kt. The official track forecast was shifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track this afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly track based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared imagery ahead of the storm and model guidance. In addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.0N 96.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.8N 97.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 20.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake

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Hurricane Katia Graphics

2017-09-08 22:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:49:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:49:00 GMT

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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2017-09-08 22:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 082036 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 50 86 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) TUXPAN MX 64 58 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BANN

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