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Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-09 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090834 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 Convection has substantially diminished with Katia, with satellite imagery showing a significantly degraded structure. In fact, it seems that the low-level circulation may be decoupled from the low center aloft now, as a distinct circulation in diminishing colder cloud tops moved more quickly off to the southwest. There was already evidence of this occurring from the recon flight earlier tonight. The initial position was determined via the circulation in warmer clouds in the lower troposphere on IR satellite. Katia is very close to the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains, and thus the forecast shows very little movement this morning as the increasingly shallow circulation would be less likely to propagate west through the mountainous areas. The initial intensity is set at 35 knots out of respect for the hurricane strength Dvorak fixes only nine hours ago, and the extent of tropical storm force winds sampled by the recon plane shortly thereafter, although this could be generous. The most likely location of tropical storm force winds would be away from the center and over the water or near the coast in the eastern semicircle of Katia's circulation. The wind field should continue to weaken this morning, and we show a dissipation of Katia by 18Z today. Although convection has generally diminished as of 09Z, lingering elevated levels of atmospheric moisture associated with Katia could continue to produce heavy rains in the region, which could lead to flash floods and mudslides even after Katia dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.3N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Lamers/Roth
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Summary for Tropical Storm Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-09 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA BEGINNING TO STALL NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 the center of Katia was located near 20.3, -97.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-09-09 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 090832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/ROTH
Tropical Storm Katia Public Advisory Number 15
2017-09-09 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Katia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...KATIA BEGINNING TO STALL NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 97.5W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Panuco to Puerto Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 97.5 West. Katia is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h) and it is expected to drift to the east of the Sierra Madre Mountains as it dissipates today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds should continue to subside as Katia dissipates today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Some inundation along the coast due to storm surge will remain possible this morning. Water levels along the coast should decrease as the storm moves inland and winds subside. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Lamers/Roth
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Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-09-09 10:31:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * RIO PANUCO TO PUERTO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 97.5W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 97.5W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 97.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N 97.6W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 97.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/ROTH
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