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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-08 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...HEADED TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 the center of Katia was located near 21.5, -95.1 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-08 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080257 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...KATIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...HEADED TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 95.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical- storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 95.1 West. Katia is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until the system makes landfall by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by Friday night or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-09-08 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 080257 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 2 11(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TUXPAN MX 34 3 69(72) 13(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) TUXPAN MX 50 X 20(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) TUXPAN MX 64 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 15(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-09-08 04:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080254 TCMAT3 HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO * SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 95.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.8N 96.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.3N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-08 04:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080253 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Katia this evening and found flight level winds of 80 kt and SFMR values around 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 75 kt. Satellite images also show that Katia is getting better organized, with a ragged eye becoming apparent during the last hour or so. Additional strengthening is possible, and Katia could be near major hurricane strength before it makes landfall by Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains shortly after 48 hours. Katia has now begun the expected slow west-southwest motion. A continued slow west-southwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the consensus models. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia is forecast to affect eastern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.5N 95.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.3N 95.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 20.8N 96.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 19.3N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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