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Hurricane Katia Graphics
2017-09-08 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 08:53:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 08:53:20 GMT
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-08 10:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080838 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite image indicate improved banding over the western portion of the circulation and the earlier ragged eye presentation has become much more distinct. Subsequently, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased along with the Objective ADT T-number, and the initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia could be near major hurricane intensity prior to landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period. The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/3 kt. A continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official forecast has changed little from the previous one, and is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus multi-model. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.0N 96.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.3N 97.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 19.3N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-08 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Katia was located near 21.3, -95.4 with movement WSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-08 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 ...KATIA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 95.4W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical- storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until the system makes landfall within the hurricane warning area by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by later today. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-08 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 080837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TUXPAN MX 34 13 71(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) TUXPAN MX 50 1 32(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) TUXPAN MX 64 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 23(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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