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Hurricane Katia Graphics
2017-09-08 19:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 17:51:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 15:42:02 GMT
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Hurricane Katia Graphics
2017-09-08 17:03:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 15:03:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 15:03:32 GMT
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-08 16:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081440 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite data indicate improved banding over the western portion of the circulation with visible pictures showing the formation of a ragged eye. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both supported 80 kt winds earlier, and aircraft data suggested that Katia has continued to intensify, so the initial intensity has been increased to 85 knots. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia could be approaching major hurricane intensity prior to landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period. The initial motion estimate is 240/4 kt. A continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official track forecast has changed little from the previous one, and remains roughly in the middle of the guidance. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.0N 95.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bann/Carbin
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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-09-08 16:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 081433 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 50 13(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) TUXPAN MX 50 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 9 11(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN
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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-08 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Katia was located near 21.0, -95.8 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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