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Remnants of BRET Graphics
2017-06-20 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 20:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 21:22:10 GMT
Remnants of BRET Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-06-20 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202032 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Bret no longer has a closed circulation and has degenerated into a tropical wave. The wave is likely producing 30 to 35 knot sustained winds over water in squalls to the north of the area of minimum pressure. The wave is expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean where strong southerly shear prevails, and regeneration of the system is not anticipated. Most of the models agree and dampen the wave in a day or two. This is the last advisory on Bret, and additional information on this system can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, and in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of BRET Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-06-20 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 202031 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF BRET WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Remnants of BRET (AT2/AL022017)
2017-06-20 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BRET DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 20 the center of BRET was located near 12.0, -67.3 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Remnants of BRET Public Advisory Number 9
2017-06-20 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Bret Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 ...BRET DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 67.3W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The respective governments of the Caribbean nations have discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Bret were located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 67.3 West. The remnants are rapidly moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion will continue during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are associated with squalls to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Bret are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, and coastal Venezuela tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
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