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Summary for Tropical Storm Bret (AT2/AL022017)
2017-06-20 13:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BRET MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Jun 20 the center of Bret was located near 11.1, -63.6 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bret Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-06-20 13:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201132 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 800 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 ...BRET MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 63.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF ISLA MARGARITA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 63.6 West. Bret is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will continue to move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea today. Surface observations from the eastern Caribbean Sea indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening trend is expected to begin later today and Bret is forecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will occur over portions of the warning area for the next several hours, but these conditions should subside later today. RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm BRET Graphics
2017-06-20 11:01:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 09:01:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 09:21:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm BRET Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-06-20 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 200853 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CURACAO 34 X 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GRENADA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JUANGRIEGO 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm BRET Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-06-20 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea. The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus, IVCN. The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 10.6N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 11.5N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.4N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 13.3N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 13.6N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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