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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 15A
2019-08-28 07:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Dorian is then forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 07:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 05:32:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 03:24:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 04:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 02:52:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 02:52:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-08-28 04:50:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280250 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian is yet to strengthen, and the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. The storm's cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking with no clear convective banding features. Since the storm has strong upper-level outflow over the western semicircle of the circulation and vertical shear should remain low for the next day or two, strengthening is still forecast before Dorian reaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is likely by 24 hours due to the interaction of the circulation with Puerto Rico. The intensity forecast in 3-5 days remains problematic because of a significant spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies. The official intensity forecast has been increased in comparison to the previous ones. However, it is now near the low end of the numerical guidance suite. Dorian has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 310/11 kt. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone will be headed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In 3-4 days, the global models show the ridge rebuilding somewhat over the western Atlantic. This scenario should cause Dorian to turn toward the left later in the forecast period. The official forecast has been shifted to the north of the previous one. This is in close agreement with the ECMWF model track, but south and southwest of the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance. storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-08-28 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 006 FONT15 KNHC 280250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 35(53) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 20(51) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) X(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 X 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PONCE PR 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 74(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 3 85(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) VIEQUES PR 50 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 51(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 54 38(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT CROIX 50 8 34(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT CROIX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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