je.st
news
Tag: dorian
Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 14A
2019-08-28 02:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280000 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected forecaster name ...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-08-27 23:00:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272100 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A 10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC. But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or 300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than- normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-27 22:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:39:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:39:26 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-27 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.3, -62.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-08-27 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 272038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X 51(51) 19(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONCE PR 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 13(13) 44(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 36(36) 18(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 1 55(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) VIEQUES PR 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 17(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 34 1 50(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT CROIX 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] next »