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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 14
2019-08-27 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-08-27 22:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 62.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-27 19:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.0, -62.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 13A
2019-08-27 19:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are diminishing over the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-27 19:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 17:49:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:24:57 GMT
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