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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-08-26 19:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261738 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 58.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-26 17:03:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:03:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:03:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-08-26 17:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261500 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian's convective and outflow pattern have continued to improve, with a narrow poleward outflow channel now apparent in water vapor images. Passive microwave imagery has shown a persistent low-level eye-like feature along with an intermittent mid-level eyewall forming that quickly erodes due to mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 56 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. Dorian is expected to continue moving west-northwestward today through Tuesday night as the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday, Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX. The intensity forecast is less straight-forward than the track forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry mid-level air surrounding and occasionally being entrained into Dorian's inner-core region, would favor at least steady strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, SSTs of at least 29C, and the small overall circulation and inner-core wind field. The recent development of a poleward outflow channel and possible development of an equatorward channel would also support strengthening. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall, only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Windward Islands. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward form the previous advisory, but is not as high as the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is of very low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are also possible in portions of the Windward Islands, and a hurricane watch has been issued for St. Lucia. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands. 3. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required later today. 4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.3N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...NERN HISPANIOLA 96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 9
2019-08-26 16:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 57.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued by the government of St. Lucia for St. Lucia. The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-08-26 16:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 389 FONT15 KNHC 261446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 7(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 2(45) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 23(54) 1(55) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) X(43) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) X(56) X(56) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 1(53) X(53) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 16(53) X(53) X(53) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 41(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 70(72) 15(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) AVES 50 X X( X) 35(35) 16(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AVES 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOMINICA 34 1 16(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) DOMINICA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 1 58(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MARTINIQUE 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 92(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 44(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BARBADOS 50 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BARBADOS 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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