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Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-08-21 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 458 FONT14 KNHC 211442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-08-21 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 211441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210835 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little overnight. A small area of deep convection has persisted northeast of the tropical storm's exposed surface center. Given the steady-state structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts, the most substantial of which is that Chantal is now expected to become a remnant low within 96 h. The tropical storm is surrounded by dry air and will be moving over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days. As a result of this unfavorable environment, Chantal is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 h. Most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose all of its convection and become post-tropical soon after, but the official forecast conservatively maintains the system as a tropical cyclone for 72 h. The official intensity forecast is near a consensus of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF models. The tropical storm is moving quickly eastward, but is forecast to slow and turn southeastward by Thursday. It should then turn toward the south on Friday as it moves around the northeast periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast, at least as long as Chantal remains a tropical cyclone. The uncertainty in the track forecast is higher after the cyclone becomes a remnant low, but most of the guidance generally suggests that Chantal will become trapped in weak steering flow and meander over the North Atlantic for a couple days thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 40.3N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
2019-08-21 10:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 08:35:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 09:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-08-21 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 210832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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